First of all, dry and hot again today; almost a carbon copy of yesterday, with afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 90s and heat index values near 105. Saturday looks like a transition day; we stay clear through lunch time, then clouds increase throughout the afternoon, as moisture associated with Bonnie moves in from the southeast… The morning advisory for TS Bonnie is in the previous post… I’ll say up front, we are not expecting a “red-letter” historic event along the gulf coast from the storm; more than likely Bonnie will remain a minimal tropical storm, or possibly even weaken to a depression before making landfall on Sunday. Bonnie moves out of South Florida and into the gulf, this afternoon, where upper level conditions are not favorable for strengthening. An upper level low is located in the central gulf, and a ridge to the north, which will steer Bonnie toward the northwest, with the MOST likely landfall on Sunday morning somewhere between Mobile and New Orleans. This would be good news, in terms of rain, for parts of the Delta and Louisiana, where conditions are very dry. It is too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will fall; as of now it does look like the better coverage will stay west and southwest of Mississippi, but that can change. Also, tropical systems can spin-off small tornados, which is something else to watch… We’ll keep the updates coming throughout the weekend; in the mean time, have a great Friday!
Today
High: 98
Lots of sunshine and hot!
Heat Index: 105
Wind: S 5-10
Tonight
Low: 72
Mostly clear.
Wind: SE 2-4
Filed under: Discussions, Forecast
