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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED…ERN OK…FAR NE TX…AR…NRN LA…WRN TN…NW MS CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW VALID 091603Z – 092200Z SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS CNTRL [...]
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These are average totals; some spots will receive more… As we’ve mentioned before, a narrow strip of heavier snow typically develops in these systems; impossible to pinpoint the location until the snow moves in, but 4 to 6 inches is possible within the band. The time frame for measurable snow is expected between noon and [...]
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The models continue to trend drier, but also colder… One without the other means a significant change in the forecast, but thanks to the laws of physics, we’re still in line to receive a decent snowfall. If this were an all rain event, the total amount expected would be very low; around 2 tenths of [...]
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After looking over the 12Z model runs, I decided to make a slight southward adjustment to include Issaquena, Sharkey, & the N. Half of Yazoo Co in the 2-4″ forecast. Keep in mind, there will probably be a narrow band of heavier snow, or a “sweet spot” with 4-7″, but impossible to determine its placement before [...]
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The previous post contains a list of all counties included in the Winter Storm Watch… We expect snow to begin Wednesday afternoon, moving in from west to east, continuing through much of the night. After looking over the latest forecast soundings (NAM/GFS Bufkit), confidence is high that most of the precip will fall in the [...]
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 321 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL- MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN… INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CROSSETT…NORTH CROSSETT…HAMBURG… WEST CROSSETT…DERMOTT…LAKE VILLAGE…EUDORA…BASTROP… OAK GROVE…EPPS…LAKE PROVIDENCE…RAYVILLE…DELHI… TALLULAH…WINNSBORO…CLEVELAND…INDIANOLA…RULEVILLE… GREENWOOD…GRENADA…VAIDEN…NORTH [...]
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Light to moderate snow in progress this morning, in the NW corner of Mississippi and SW Tennessee, where and dusting to 1 half-inch is possible in the heavier bands. Already a dusting or more on the ground in the Memphis metro…. You can watch the snow from TDOT’S traffic cams….
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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1203 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2011 ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA- SHARKEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CROSSETT…NORTH CROSSETT…HAMBURG… WEST CROSSETT…DERMOTT…LAKE VILLAGE…EUDORA…BASTROP… OAK GROVE…EPPS…LAKE PROVIDENCE…RAYVILLE…DELHI… TALLULAH…WINNSBORO…CLEVELAND…INDIANOLA…RULEVILLE… GREENVILLE…MAYERSVILLE…ROLLING FORK…ANGUILLA 1203 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2011 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS [...]
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Numerous traffic accidents already reported this morning due to icy roads and bridges… Light freezing rain still falling in most spots, but temperatures should warm above freezing by 10 o’clock, ending the threat for additional icing…
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This set up is a classic example of how poorly weather prediction models understand shallow, cold air! The forecasted critical thickness values not even close, running much too high for the snow and sleet that fell today in Central Mississippi and Alabama. Unless the laws of physics have changed on us within the past few 24 hours, model data can be thrown [...]
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